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Global Deaths Associated with Population Aging - 1990-2019
Ruotong Li1,2, Xunjie Cheng3, Yang Yang4
1Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China.
China CDC Weekly
|December 28, 2023
Summary
A new method for calculating deaths from population aging shows it caused 23.3 million global deaths between 1990-2019. Reductions in mortality offset these increases in most countries.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Demography
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Published data on deaths linked to population aging has limitations.
- Existing decomposition methods for analyzing aging-related mortality have significant drawbacks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a novel decomposition method for assessing population aging-related deaths.
- To quantify global deaths associated with population aging from 1990 to 2019 using the new method.
Main Methods:
- A new decomposition method was developed and compared against two established techniques.
- The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) dataset was utilized for calculations.
Main Results:
- The novel method yielded results more consistent with logical expectations than existing approaches.
- Population aging was associated with 23.3 million global deaths between 1990-2019.
- Upper middle-income countries contributed 43% of these deaths, with ischemic heart disease, stroke, and COPD being primary causes.
Conclusions:
- The new decomposition method provides more accurate and justifiable results for population aging-related mortality.
- Despite a substantial increase in aging-related deaths globally, mortality reductions offset these gains in 97.5% of countries.
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