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Nomogram for predicting venous thromboembolism after spinal surgery.

Wei-Qing Kong1, Cheng Shao2, Yu-Kun Du1

  • 1Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, No. 59 Haier Road, Qingdao, 266000, Shandong Province, China.

European Spine Journal : Official Publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society
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PubMed
Summary

This study developed a nomogram to predict venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk after spinal surgery. The tool identifies high-risk patients, aiding in VTE prevention strategies.

Keywords:
Deep vein thrombosisNomogramPulmonary embolismSpinal surgeryVenous thromboembolism

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Area of Science:

  • Orthopedic Surgery
  • Vascular Surgery
  • Medical Informatics

Background:

  • Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a significant complication following spinal surgery.
  • Accurate risk prediction is crucial for effective VTE prevention strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the risk of VTE after spinal surgery.
  • To identify independent risk factors associated with postoperative VTE.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of 2754 patients undergoing spinal surgery.
  • Utilized univariate and LASSO logistic regression for risk factor identification.
  • Developed and validated a nomogram using C-index, ROC curves, and calibration plots.

Main Results:

  • Identified 10 independent risk factors for VTE.
  • The nomogram demonstrated high accuracy, discrimination, and calibration in both training and validation cohorts.
  • Decision curve analysis indicated significant clinical utility.

Conclusions:

  • Elevated D-dimer, prolonged surgery duration, and cervical surgery are associated with increased VTE risk.
  • The developed nomogram provides a valuable tool for clinicians to guide VTE prevention in spinal surgery patients.