Exploring watershed ecological risk bundles based on ecosystem services: A case study of Shanxi Province, China

Humans are having an increasingly profound impact on the environment along with the advent of the Anthropocene. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) as a method to quantify ecological problems can provide support for decision-makers, and it is one of key issues to integrate ecosystem services into ERA. In this study, an ERA framework was proposed under the loss-probability paradigm from the perspective of ecosystem services risk bundles. The results showed that initiatives aimed at ecological protection in Shanxi Province had been effective, the number of watersheds with low-risk bundles increased significantly (from 16.09% to 34.49%) and the watersheds basically overlapped with key forestation areas. However, the effects of forestation activities may no longer be as significant as they once were, as the relationship between forestation and water supply was becoming increasingly contradictory. Meanwhile, the conflict between urban expansion and natural ecosystem protection was intensifying, habitat degradation risks were gradually polarized, and the risk bundles dominated by high carbon emission and habitat degradation were increasing significantly (from 15.88% to 33.54%). Strengthening the construction of urban green space and controlling the expansion of human activities may be the next focus of ecological conservation in Shanxi Province. This study enriched the ERA framework with an ecosystem services risk bundle approach.