Spatial and variety distributions, risk assessment, and prediction model for heavy metals in rice grains in China

In this study, 6229 brown rice grains from three major rice-producing regions were collected to investigate the spatial and variety distributions of heavy metals in rice grains in China. The potential sources of heavy metals in rice grains were identified using the Pearson correlation matrix and principal component analysis, and the health risks of dietary exposure to heavy metals via rice consumption were assessed using the hazard index (HI) and total carcinogenic risk (TCR) method, respectively. Moreover, 48 paired soil and rice samples from 11 cities were collected to construct a predicting model for Cd accumulation in rice grains using the multiple linear stepwise regression analysis. The results indicated that Cd and Ni were the main heavy metal pollutants in rice grains in China, with approximately 10% of samples exceeding their corresponding maximum allowable limits. The Yangtze River basin had heavier pollution of heavy metals than the Southeast Coastal Region and Northeast Plain, and the indica rice varieties had higher heavy metal accumulation abilities compared with the japonica rice. The Cu, Pb, and Cd mainly originated from anthropogenic sources, while As, Hg, Cr, and Ni originated from both natural and anthropogenic sources. The mean HI and TCR values of dietary exposure to heavy metals via rice consumption ranged from 2.92 to 4.31 and 9.74 × 10^-3 to 1.44 × 10^-2, respectively, much higher than the acceptable range, and As and Ni were the main contributor to the HI and TCR for Chinese adults and children, respectively. The available Si (ASi), total Cd (TCd), available Mo (AMo), and available S (AS) were the main soil factors determining grain Cd accumulation. A multiple linear stepwise regression model was constructed based on ASi, TCd, AMo, and AS in soils with good accuracy and precision, which could be applied to predict Cd accumulation in rice grains and guide safe rice production in contaminated paddy fields.