Assessing the potential of remote sensing-based models to predict old-growth forests on large spatiotemporal scales

Old-growth forests provide a broad range of ecosystem services. However, due to poor knowledge of their spatiotemporal distribution, implementing conservation and restoration strategies is challenging. The goal of this study is to compare the predictive ability of socioecological factors and different sources of remotely sensed data that determine the spatiotemporal scales at which forest maturity attributes can be predicted. We evaluated various remotely sensed data that cover a broad range of spatial (from local to global) and temporal (from current to decades) extents, from Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS), aerial multispectral and stereo-imagery, Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2 and Landsat data. Using random forests, remotely sensed data were related to a forest maturity index available in 688 forest plots across four ranges of the French Alps. Each model also includes socioecological predictors related to topography, socioeconomy, pedology and climatology. We found that the different remotely sensed data provide information on the main forest structural characteristics as defined by ALS, except for Landsat, which has a too coarse resolution, and Sentinel-1, which responds differently to vegetation structure. The predictions were quite similar considering aerial remotely sensed data, on the one hand, and satellite remotely sensed data, on the other hand. Socioecological variables are the most important predictors compared to the remote sensing metrics. In conclusion, our results indicate that a wide range of remotely sensed data can be used to study old-growth forests beyond the use of ALS and despite different abilities to predict forest structure. Accounting for socioecological predictors is indispensable to avoid a significant loss of predictive accuracy. Remotely sensed data can allow for predictions to be made at different spatiotemporal resolutions and extents. This study paves the way to large-scale monitoring of forest maturity, as well as for retrospective analyses which will show to what extent predicted maturity change at different dates.