Predicting ranger attrition.

Area of Science:

• Military psychology
• Personnel selection
• Performance prediction

Background:

• Elite military programs face high attrition rates, exceeding 50% in some cases.
• Effective screening of candidates is crucial for successful program matriculation.
• Existing selection methods may not fully capture predictors of success.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate predictive models for attrition in the Ranger Assessment and Selection Program (RASP).
• To identify the relative importance of physical abilities, cognitive abilities, and personality scores in predicting candidate success.
• To explore the utility of a composite probability score for admissions decisions.

Main Methods:

• Development and cross-validation of regression models.
• Utilized candidate admissions screening data including physical, cognitive, and personality scores.
• Analysis of predictors across three distinct program timeframes.

Main Results:

• Physical abilities scores were the strongest predictors of RASP attrition, despite their use in initial selection.
• Personality scores explained more variance in candidate success than cognitive ability scores.
• Openness dimensions within personality were particularly predictive of early (week one) attrition.

Conclusions:

• Physical abilities remain critical predictors of attrition, necessitating careful consideration in selection.
• Personality assessment offers valuable insights into predicting candidate success, especially early in training.
• Integrating diverse predictor data can enhance the accuracy of candidate selection for demanding military programs.