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The impact of spatial connectivity on NPIs effectiveness
Chiara E Sabbatini1, Giulia Pullano2, Laura Di Domenico1
1Sorbonne Université, INSERM, Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health, Paris, France.
BMC Infectious Diseases
|January 3, 2024
Summary
France
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health Policy
Background:
- France implemented multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for COVID-19 between September 2020 and June 2021, including lockdowns and curfews.
- Previous evaluations of NPIs often overlooked the impact of spatial connectivity and regional mobility on intervention effectiveness.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the effectiveness of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in France, considering spatial connectivity and mobility patterns.
- To evaluate the impact of the Alpha variant and vaccination campaigns on epidemic dynamics.
- To explore alternative policy scenarios, such as 'stop-and-go' lockdowns.
Main Methods:
- Developed a regionally-based epidemic metapopulation model incorporating daily mobile phone mobility data.
- Fitted the model to regional hospital admission data, integrating information on vaccination and variant spread.
- Simulated various scenarios to analyze the effects of the Alpha variant, vaccination, and different policy interventions.
Main Results:
- The spatial model accurately captured regional epidemic heterogeneity, outperforming models that ignored inter-regional mobility.
- Both the second and third lockdowns showed similar effectiveness in reducing the reproductive number (R0) by approximately 51-52%.
- A 6 pm curfew with the closure of bars and restaurants significantly reduced COVID-19 transmission, initially lowering R0 by 49% and later by 43%.
Conclusions:
- Mobility-induced spatial connectivity significantly influenced intervention effectiveness, particularly in high-mobility regions.
- An early evening curfew effectively delayed the third COVID-19 wave, allowing for vaccination progress.
- Early implementation of 'stop-and-go' lockdowns could have reduced healthcare and societal burdens compared to the observed intervention sequence, potentially with fewer labor sector impacts.
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