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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
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Robust changes in global subtropical circulation under greenhouse warming.

Shijie Zhou1, Ping Huang2,3, Lin Wang4,5

  • 1Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029, Beijing, China.

Nature Communications
|January 3, 2024
PubMed
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Global subtropical circulation (SC) is weakening due to climate change. This weakening, driven by surface warming and CO2 effects, suggests contracted monsoons and drier arid regions.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Atmospheric Dynamics
  • Earth System Science

Background:

  • The subtropical circulation (SC), encompassing monsoons and subtropical highs, is crucial for global climate variability and teleconnections.
  • Understanding SC changes in a warming climate is complex due to region-specific mechanisms and varied projections.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a method for quantifying the overall intensity change in global subtropical circulation.
  • To analyze the drivers and timescales of SC changes in response to global warming and CO2 emissions.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized CMIP6 model data to assess changes in subtropical circulation intensity.
  • Differentiated the impacts of global-mean surface warming and direct CO2 radiative forcing on SC.

Main Results:

  • A robust weakening of global subtropical circulation was consistently observed across CMIP6 models.
  • Global-mean surface warming was identified as the primary driver of SC weakening, with a counteracting effect from direct CO2.
  • Distinct response timescales to warming and CO2 forcing explained time-varying SC changes under different emission scenarios.

Conclusions:

  • The declining subtropical circulation implies a contraction of monsoon ranges.
  • Associated with CO2-induced global warming, SC weakening is projected to lead to drying in arid regions bordering monsoonal areas.