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A Model of Individual BMI Trajectories
Laurens Bogaardt1, Anoukh van Giessen1, H Susan J Picavet1
1National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Antonie van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9, 3721MA Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Mathematical Medicine and Biology : a Journal of the IMA
|January 3, 2024
Summary
This study developed a body mass index (BMI) model for health simulations. The model generates realistic population distributions and individual BMI trajectories to assess obesity policies.
Area of Science:
- Health Informatics
- Biostatistics
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Overweight and obesity are significant public health concerns requiring effective policy interventions.
- Accurate health simulation models are crucial for estimating the impact of government policies on population health.
- Existing models may not adequately capture individual-level body mass index (BMI) dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a robust risk factor model for body mass index (BMI).
- To generate representative population-level BMI distributions.
- To simulate realistic individual BMI trajectories over the life course for policy analysis.
Main Methods:
- Combined cross-sectional and longitudinal datasets.
- Extracted population-level BMI distributions.
- Modeled individual BMI trajectories using historical and longitudinal data.
- Stratified model by sex, education level, and age.
Main Results:
- The model accurately represents population-level BMI distributions across demographics.
- Generated plausible individual BMI trajectories over the life course.
- The model captures typical BMI changes but not extreme fluctuations like rapid weight loss.
Conclusions:
- The developed BMI model serves as a valuable tool for health simulations.
- Enables simulation of policies targeting individuals to address overweight and obesity.
- Provides a foundation for more refined health simulation models.
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