Gaining further insights into the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia: Evidence using capture-recapture methods

We re-examined the reported number of COVID-19 cases in Australia and across its states during the first wave of the pandemic. We provided estimates of the total number of cases, adjusted for under-reporting.

Publicly available data sourced from Australian governments at federal, state and territory levels included records on cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases and cumulative deaths occurring in Australia and across its states on a daily basis. Lower bound and upper bound estimates of the total number of COVID-19 cases in Australia and across its states, that included the undetected cases that have not been recorded, were estimated.

On January 25, 2020, Australia recorded its first 4 cases of COVID-19 and the first death occurred on March 3, 2020. On April 1, 2020, 4864 cases had been reported with 21 deaths. Our estimation showed that on April 1, 2020, the minimum and maximum number of COVID-19 cases in Australia were in fact 10,160 (95 % CI: 9781-10,538) and 21,748 (95 % CI: 21,607-22,014) respectively. We estimated that the total number of cases were at least twice and at most four times the observed cases recorded. These differences were also found at the state level where in New South Wales there was a minimum and maximum of 207 and 447 cases in total for every 100 reported cases, while in Victoria these figures were much lower at 157 and 265 respectively for every 100 reported cases.

Case ascertainment during the pandemic is known to have been underestimated due to difficulties in testing and contact tracing, amongst others. Capture-recapture methods provided a measure of the gap between the official number of cases recorded and the actual number during the first wave of the pandemic.