Shock and modified shock indices in predicting poisoning severity and outcomes in acute aluminum phosphide poisoned...

Severe refractory hypotension and cardiogenic shock are the main contributors to death in acute aluminum phosphide (ALP) poisoning. Shock index (SI) and modified shock index (MSI) are easily obtained parameters that reflect shock at an early stage.

This study aimed to evaluate the role of SI and MSI in the prediction of the severity and outcomes of acute ALP poisoned patients.

This cross sectional study was conducted on patients admitted to Tanta University Poison Control Centre with acute ALP poisoning from April 2022 to March 2023. Socio-demographics and toxicological data were taken, findings of clinical examination and laboratory investigations were recoded, SI was calculated by dividing heart rate over systolic blood pressure, and MSI was obtained by dividing heart rate over mean arterial pressure. Poisoning severity was assessed using poisoning severity score (PSS). Patients were divided into groups according to intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality.

The study enrolled 94 patients. The median values of SI and MSI were significantly higher in ICU-admitted patients and non-survivors rather than their comparable groups. Significant positive correlations were observed between each of SI and MSI and PSS. At cut-off >1.14, SI conveyed fair performance to predict ICU admission and mortality (AUC = 0.710 and 0.739, respectively). Similarly, MSI had fair performance to predict ICU admission (AUC = 0.731) and mortality (AUC = 0.744) at cut-off >1.47 and >1.5, respectively.

Both SI and MSI could be considered simple bedside adjuncts to predict ICU admission and mortality in acute ALP poisoning.