Impact of economic development on soil trace metal(loid)s pollution: A case study of China

Recently, intensive anthropogenic activities, while promoting economic growth, have also exacerbated soil trace metal(loid) (TM) pollution. To explore the impact of economic development on soil TM pollution, a time-weighted method was introduced to calculate the average concentrations of eight TMs in Chinese topsoil from 2001 to 2020, and panel data on TMs and economic factors of 31 provinces were used for regression analysis. The results revealed that the average concentrations of soil TMs all exceeded their respective soil background values. Meanwhile, the spatial distribution of soil TMs was characterized by obvious regional heterogeneity, with economically developed areas being heavily polluted and having high ecological risks. In addition, the results derived from panel data models showed that the relationship between soil TM pollution and economic development in China presented a continuous growth curve, but with an N-shaped pattern in eastern China, a U-shaped pattern in central China, and a positive linearity in western China. Four control variables were also introduced to evaluate their impact on TM pollution, and the results indicated that the proportion of secondary industry and the road area per capita were the major influencing factors. Ultimately, the inflection point estimation results suggested that the soil TM pollution level will increase in eastern China, central China and western China with ongoing economic growth. Our findings contribute to the current understanding of the relationship between soil TM pollution and anthropogenic activities, and provide a scientific basis for adjusting and planning industrial development and layout according to the characteristics of soil TM pollution.