Risk factors and a predictive nomogram for lymph node metastasis in superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is defined as cancer infiltrating the mucosa and submucosa, regardless of regional lymph node metastasis (LNM). Endoscopic resection of superficial ESCC is suitable for lesions that have no or low risk of LNM. Patients with a high risk of LNM always need further treatment after endoscopic resection. Therefore, accurately assessing the risk of LNM is critical for additional treatment options.

To analyze risk factors for LNM and develop a nomogram to predict LNM risk in superficial ESCC patients.

Clinical and pathological data of superficial ESCC patients undergoing esophagectomy from January 1, 2009 to January 31, 2016 were collected. Logistic regression analysis was used to predict LNM risk factors, and a nomogram was developed based on risk factors derived from multivariate logistic regression analysis. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to obtain the accuracy of the nomogram model.

A total of 4660 patients with esophageal cancer underwent esophagectomy. Of these, 474 superficial ESCC patients were enrolled in the final analysis, with 322 patients in the training set and 142 patients in the validation set. The prevalence of LNM was 3.29% (5/152) for intramucosal cancer and increased to 26.40% (85/322) for submucosal cancer. Multivariate logistic analysis showed that tumor size, invasive depth, tumor differentiation, infiltrative growth pattern, tumor budding, and lymphovascular invasion were significantly correlated with LNM. A nomogram using these six variables showed good discrimination with an area under the ROC curve of 0.789 (95%CI: 0.737-0.841) in the training set and 0.827 (95%CI: 0.755-0.899) in the validation set.

We developed a useful nomogram model to predict LNM risk for superficial ESCC patients which will facilitate additional decision-making in treating patients who undergo endoscopic resection.