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Persistent Risk of Developing Autoimmune Diseases Associated With COVID-19: An Observational Study Using an
Shoichiro Inokuchi1, Koji Shimamoto
1From the Research and Analytics Department, Real World Data Co, Ltd, Kyoto, Japan.
Insights
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) significantly increases the risk of developing autoimmune diseases in Japan, with risks persisting long-term. This association holds across various COVID-19 variants and specific autoimmune conditions.
Area of Science:
- Immunology
- Infectious Diseases
- Public Health
Background:
- Emerging evidence suggests viral infections can trigger autoimmune responses.
- The long-term impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on autoimmune disease development requires further investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between COVID-19 and the risk of developing autoimmune diseases in Japan.
- To examine both short-term and long-term risks, as well as variant-specific risks.
Main Methods:
- Observational study utilizing a Japanese electronic medical record database.
- Comparison of autoimmune disease incidence between COVID-19 patients and a non-COVID-19 cohort.
- Risk assessment using standardized mortality ratio weighting and Cox proportional hazards models, with subgroup analyses for variants and timeframes.
Main Results:
- A total of 90,855 COVID-19 patients and 459,827 controls were analyzed.
- COVID-19 was associated with a 2.32-fold increased relative risk of any autoimmune disease.
- Significant risks were observed for specific diseases like rheumatoid arthritis, systemic sclerosis, and IgG4-related disease, with substantial long-term risks for the latter two.
Conclusions:
- COVID-19 is linked to a persistent, increased risk of autoimmune diseases in the Japanese population.
- The findings highlight a significant long-term association between viral infections and autoimmunity.
- Variant-specific risks and long-term implications warrant continued monitoring.
Objective:
This study aimed to investigate the risk of developing autoimmune diseases associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan, including long-term risks and risks specific to different variants of concern.
Methods:
This observational study used an electronic medical record database in Japan. The COVID-19 group is composed of patients diagnosed with COVID-19, whereas the non-COVID-19 group had data sampled from the database. The outcomes of interest encompassed several autoimmune diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis, systemic sclerosis, and immunoglobulin G4-related disease, as well as a composite of these diseases (any autoimmune disease). We examined the relative risk of autoimmune diseases using standardized mortality ratio weighting and the Cox proportional hazards model. Subgroup analyses based on epidemic variants were performed. In addition, short- and long-term risks were investigated using piecewise constant hazard models.
Results:
A total of 90,855 COVID-19 and 459,827 non-COVID-19 patients were included between January 16, 2020, and December 31, 2022. The relative risk of any autoimmune disease was 2.32 (95% confidence interval, 2.08-2.60). All the investigated outcomes showed a significant risk associated with COVID-19. Several autoimmune diseases exhibit a risk associated with COVID-19 in the short to long term, and the long-term risk is substantial for systemic sclerosis and immunoglobulin G4-related disease. The variant-specific risk varied across outcomes.
Conclusions:
COVID-19 is associated with an increased risk of developing autoimmune diseases in the Japanese population, and this effect persists for a long time. This study provides insights into the association between viral infections and autoimmunity.
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