Risk Factors for the Development of Persistent Scaphoid Non-Union After Surgery for an Established Non-Union

Between 2014 and 2020, candidates for scaphoid non-union (SNU) surgery were enrolled in a prospective randomized trial (Scaphoid Nonunion and Low Intensity Pulsed Ultrasound [SNAPU] trial) evaluating the effect of low-intensity pulsed ultrasound on postoperative scaphoid healing. At trial completion, 114/134 (85%) of these patients went on to union, and 20/134 (15%) went on to persistent SNU (PSNU). The purpose of this study was to use this prospectively gathered data to identify patient-, fracture-, and surgery-specific risk factors that may be predictive of PSNU in patients who undergo surgery for SNU.

Data were extracted from the SNAPU trial database. The inclusion and exclusion criteria of this study were the same as that of the SNAPU trial. Nineteen patient-, fracture-, and surgery-specific risk factors were determined a priori. A stepwise multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify independent risk factors for PSNU.

Three risk factors were found to be independently significant predictors of PSNU: age at the time of surgery, dominant hand injury, and previous surgery on the affected scaphoid. With every decade of a patient's life, dominant hand injury, and previous scaphoid surgery, the odds of union are reduced by 1.72 times, 7.35 times, and 4.24 times, respectively.

We identified three independent risk factors for PSNU: age at SNU surgery, dominant hand injury, and previous surgery on the affected scaphoid. The findings of this study are significant and may contribute to shared decision-making and prognostication between the patient, surgeon, and affiliated members of their care team.