Pancreatic cysts: can surveillance interval for small low-risk lesions be lengthened?

Surveillance of pancreatic cysts are necessary due to risk of malignant transformation. However, reported progression rates to advanced neoplasia are variable and the high frequency of surveillance scans may pose a considerable burden on healthcare resources.

To validate the effectiveness of the Fukuoka Guidelines surveillance regime and determine if a longer surveillance interval can be established.

All magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies of the pancreas performed at our institution between January 2014 and December 2016 with at least one pancreatic cystic lesion and follow-up MRI or computed tomography (CT) over at least two years were reviewed for size, worrisome feature (WF), and high-risk stigmata (HRS) at diagnosis and follow-up imaging (up to year 6). Reference standards for advanced neoplasia were based on endoscopic ultrasound, fine needle aspiration cytology, or the presence of ≥2 WF or ≥1 HRS on imaging. Comparison of MRI features of progression and outcomes of diagnostic endpoints between lesions <20 mm and ≥20 mm was performed.

A total of 270 patients were included (201 cysts <20 mm, 69 cysts ≥20 mm). Compared with cysts <20 mm, cysts ≥20 mm were more likely to be associated with WF or HRS (40.6% vs. 12.4%; P ≤0.00001), demonstrate increase in size of ≥5 mm in two years (20.3% vs. 10.9%; P = 0.049), and develop advanced neoplasia (24.6% vs. 0.5%; P <0.00001).

Pancreatic cysts <20 mm have a low risk of developing WF and HRS and surveillance interval may be lengthened.