Human movement and transmission dynamics early in Ebola outbreaks

Human movement drives the transmission and spread of communicable pathogens. It is especially influential for emerging pathogens when population immunity is low and spillover events are rare. We digitized serial printed maps to measure transportation networks (roads and rivers) in Central and West Africa as proxies for population mobility to assess relationships between movement and Ebola transmission. We find that the lengths of roads and rivers in close proximity to spillover sites at or near the time of spillover events are significantly correlated with the number of EVD cases, particularly in the first 100 days of each outbreak. Early management and containment efforts along transportation networks may be beneficial in mitigation during the early days of transmission and spatial spread for Ebola outbreaks.