The prognosis-based classification model in resectable pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma treatment is mainly based on the anatomical resectability classification. However, prognosis-based classification may be more reasonable. In this study, we stratified resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma according to preoperative factors and reconsidered treatment strategies.

We retrospectively evaluated 131 patients who underwent upfront surgery for resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma between 2007 and 2019. Recurrence within 1 year after surgery was defined as early recurrence, and the risk factors for early recurrence were identified using preoperative factors. Subsequently, we calculated the scores and stratified the participant groups.

Fifty-five (42 %) patients who relapsed within 1 year showed significantly poorer survival than those without recurrence (median overall survival, 14.0 vs. 80.6 months; p < 0.01). Multivariate analysis revealed that a tumor diameter of ≥24 mm (p < 0.01) and preoperative serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level of ≥380 U/mL (p = 0.04) were the independent risk factors for early recurrence. Early recurrence score was created using these factors, stratifying the participant group into three groups of 0-2 points, and the prognosis was significantly different (median overall survival, 49.3 vs. 31.2 vs. 16.0 months; p < 0.01).

We stratified the upfront surgical cases of resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. The group with a score of 0 had a good prognosis, and upfront surgery was possibly not futile on patients in poor general condition. The group with a score of 2 had a poor prognosis and may require stronger preoperative treatment.