Fast creation of data-driven low-order predictive cardiac tissue excitation models from recorded activation patterns

Excitable systems give rise to important phenomena such as heat waves, epidemics and cardiac arrhythmias. Understanding, forecasting and controlling such systems requires reliable mathematical representations. For cardiac tissue, computational models are commonly generated in a reaction-diffusion framework based on detailed measurements of ionic currents in dedicated single-cell experiments. Here, we show that recorded movies at the tissue-level of stochastic pacing in a single variable are sufficient to generate a mathematical model. Via exponentially weighed moving averages, we create additional state variables, and use simple polynomial regression in the augmented state space to quantify excitation wave dynamics. A spatial gradient-sensing term replaces the classical diffusion as it is more robust to noise. Our pipeline for model creation is demonstrated for an in-silico model and optical voltage mapping recordings of cultured human atrial myocytes and only takes a few minutes. Our findings have the potential for widespread generation, use and on-the-fly refinement of personalised computer models for non-linear phenomena in biology and medicine, such as predictive cardiac digital twins.