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Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Two-Phase Nonlinear Degrading Systems with Three-Source Variability.
Xuemiao Cui1, Jiping Lu1, Yafeng Han1
1School of Mechanical Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China.
This study introduces a new model for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of degrading devices by accounting for temporal, unit-to-unit, and measurement variabilities. Incorporating all three variabilities simultaneously is crucial for accurate RUL prediction.
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Area of Science:
- Reliability Engineering
- Degradation Modeling
- Predictive Maintenance
Background:
- Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation is critical for operational safety.
- Existing models partially address temporal, unit-to-unit, and measurement variabilities.
- A comprehensive approach is needed for two-phase nonlinear degrading systems.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a two-phase nonlinear degradation model incorporating three sources of variability.
- To derive an analytical solution for RUL estimation considering these variabilities.
- To validate the proposed model with numerical and real-world data.
Main Methods:
- Nonlinear Wiener process for modeling degradation.
- First passage time (FPT) for RUL solution derivation.
- Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for offline parameter estimation.
- Bayesian rule with Kalman Filtering (KF) for online model updating.
Main Results:
- An approximate analytical solution for RUL with three-source variability was derived.
- Offline and online methods were successfully applied for parameter estimation and model updating.
- Validation confirmed the necessity of considering all three variabilities simultaneously.
Conclusions:
- The proposed model effectively estimates RUL for two-phase nonlinear degrading systems.
- Simultaneous consideration of temporal, unit-to-unit, and measurement variabilities is essential for accurate RUL prediction.
- This approach enhances the reliability and safety of degrading systems.

