Probabilistic risk assessment of microplastics in Tai Lake, China

Microplastics are a global environmental concern, especially in freshwater ecosystems. Despite the studies in specific regions of Tai lake, a gap persists in understanding the comprehensive risk of MPs across the entire watershed. Therefore, this study offers an overview of MPs abundance and assesses ecotoxicological risk by employing acute and chronic species sensitivity distributions, which consider the effects triggered by MPs. The concentrations of MPs ranged from 0 to 18.6 particles/L within the lake, 1.56 to 1.42 × 10² particles/L in the rivers, and 0.16 to 0.7 particles/L in the estuaries. Certain areas, particularly the northwest and southeast regions, exhibit higher concentrations. Using existing toxicity data, this study calculated predicted no effect concentrations for acute and chronic exposure of MPs to freshwater species, resulting in values of 11.5 and 31.72 particles/L, respectively. The probabilistic risk assessment indicates that the average risk possibility of MPs in Tai lake was 16 %. Moreover, the risk characterization ratio indicated that 22 % of the locations in Tai lake showed an acute ecological risk, while 7.4 % exhibit a chronic ecological risk. The assessment concluded that MPs reported in the literature could pose a considerable risk to Tai lake biota. However, the risk associated with MPs followed descending order: river >lake > estuary waters. Our research supplies valuable insights for the assessment of ecological risks associated with MPs on a whole watershed scale.