Water pollution scenarios and response options for China

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Water Resource Management
• Policy Analysis

Background:

• China faces significant water pollution challenges despite policy efforts.
• Quantitative analysis of policy impacts on future water pollution is limited.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantitatively assess the future water pollution load in China (2021-2035).
• To analyze the effectiveness of different policy scenarios on reducing water pollution.
• To identify key measures for mitigating water pollution across consumption, production, and treatment areas.

Main Methods:

• Grey water footprint (GWF) assessment.
• Scenario simulation (current policy and technical improvement).
• Analysis of chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP).

Main Results:

• Current policies may reduce GWF by 15.0%-39.9% but are not universally effective.
• Dietary changes and improved wastewater treatment/manure utilization are key.
• A technical improvement scenario could decrease GWF by 54.9%-71.1%, achieving reductions in all provinces.
• Policy implementation faces challenges and varying applicability across provinces.

Conclusions:

• Policy effectiveness in reducing China's water pollution varies significantly.
• A comprehensive technical improvement strategy is crucial for widespread GWF reduction.
• Further analysis is needed to inform freshwater resource protection and policy assessment.