Minimum latency effects for cancer associated with exposures to radiation or other carcinogens

In estimating radiation-associated cancer risks a fixed period for the minimum latency is often assumed. Two empirical latency functions have been used to model latency, continuously increasing from 0. A stochastic biologically-based approach yields a still more plausible way of describing latency and can be directly estimated from clinical data.

We derived the parameters for a stochastic biologically-based model from tumour growth data for various cancers, and least-squares fitted the two types of empirical latency function to the stochastic model-predicted cumulative probability.

There is wide variation in growth rates among tumours, particularly slow for prostate and thyroid cancer and particularly fast for leukaemia. The slow growth rate for prostate and thyroid tumours implies that the number of tumour cells required for clinical detection cannot greatly exceed 10⁶. For all tumours, both empirical latency functions closely approximated the predicted biological model cumulative probability.

Our results, illustrating use of a stochastic biologically-based model using clinical data not tied to any particular carcinogen, have implications for estimating latency associated with any mutagen. They apply to tumour growth in general, and may be useful for example, in planning screenings for cancer using imaging techniques.