Quantifying the direct and indirect impacts of urban waterlogging using input‒output analysis

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Urban Planning
• Disaster Management

Background:

• Urban waterlogging disasters are increasing, causing substantial social and economic damage.
• Current metrics fail to capture the full economic and ecological impacts of varying rainfall intensities and regional ripple effects.
• Effective urban disaster risk management requires a comprehensive evaluation of total economic impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop an integrated assessment framework for analyzing urban waterlogging losses, including direct economic, indirect economic, and environmental impacts.
• To evaluate the spatial and industrial heterogeneity of these impacts and their spillover effects.
• To provide data-driven insights for policymakers to enhance urban waterlogging disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.

Main Methods:

• Simulated urban waterlogging disaster risks using the InfoWorks ICM model in Beijing.
• Quantified direct economic losses and assessed environmental impacts.
• Estimated indirect economic losses via input-output analysis and explored interregional spillover effects.

Main Results:

• Direct economic and environmental losses increase with longer return periods, showing synergistic trends and spatial heterogeneity.
• Indirect economic impacts were 2.43 times larger than direct impacts, with infrastructure damage causing pronounced cascading effects.
• Significant industrial and spatial heterogeneity in interregional impacts was observed, particularly affecting eastern provinces.

Conclusions:

• The developed framework effectively assesses the multifaceted economic and environmental impacts of urban waterlogging.
• Indirect losses and cascading effects are critical components of total disaster impact, necessitating integrated risk management approaches.
• Mapping loss transmission paths aids policymakers in developing targeted mitigation strategies for urban waterlogging disasters.