[Driving Forces and Mitigation Potential of CO₂ Emissions for Ship Transportation in Guangdong Province, China]

Ships are important sources of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Guangdong Province. The study of historical evolutions, drivers, and projected pathways of CO₂ emissions can provide scientific support for the development of carbon peaking and carbon neutral strategies in Guangdong Province. The emission factor method, log-average index (LMDI) method, and scenario analysis method were adopted to estimate CO₂ emissions, identify the drivers, and explore the mitigation potential from ships in Guangdong Province, separately. The results showed that:① CO₂ emissions from ships in Guangdong Province increased from 3.319 4 million tons to 6.392 9 million tons from 2006 to 2020, with dry bulk carriers and container ships being the main ship types causing the increase in emissions. ② The positive drivers of CO₂ emissions from ships in Guangdong Province from 2006 to 2020 were transport intensity (51%) and economic factors (49%), and the negative drivers were energy intensity (93%) and cargo class structure (7%). ③ Carbon peaking would not be reached by 2030 if Guangdong Province maintains the current policy (baseline scenario) for ship transportation. ④ Simultaneous optimization of the energy structure and promotion of the energy intensity (energy-efficient and low-carbon scenario) had a 56.51% potential to reduce CO₂ emissions from ships compared to the baseline scenario. This can provide scientific support for Guangdong Province to develop a carbon peaking and carbon neutral control strategy for the shipping industry.