Statistically downscaled CMIP6 ocean variables for European waters

Area of Science:

• Marine science
• Climate modeling
• Ecosystem dynamics

Background:

• Climate change impact studies require high-resolution projections for effective planning.
• Existing climate models often lack the necessary detail for localized marine ecosystem assessments.
• Uncertainty in climate models necessitates the use of multiple models and scenarios.

Purpose of the Study:

• To statistically downscale Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models for European waters.
• To provide projections for key marine habitat indicators: temperature, salinity, pH, oxygen, and chlorophyll.
• To generate data for evaluating the efficacy of nature-based solutions under different climate scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Statistical downscaling of 3-7 CMIP6 models.
• Analysis across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5.
• Evaluation of downscaled projections against observational data from four European regions.

Main Results:

• Downscaled projections accurately capture historical marine conditions (1993-2020).
• Statistically downscaled models show improved skill for temperature and oxygen compared to original Earth System Models (ESMs).
• Significant warming and acidification trends are projected, with scenario-specific differences emerging later in the century. Deoxygenation trends are less distinct.

Conclusions:

• The study provides valuable, high-resolution climate projections for European marine ecosystems.
• These projections are essential for assessing climate change impacts and informing the implementation of nature-based solutions.
• Understanding regional heterogeneity is critical for effective marine conservation and management strategies.