Validation of the IberScore model in a primary care population

Area of Science:

• Cardiology
• Public Health
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a leading cause of mortality globally.
• Accurate risk assessment is crucial for primary prevention strategies.
• The IberScore model is a tool used to estimate 10-year CVD risk.

Purpose of the Study:

• To validate the predictive performance of the IberScore cardiovascular risk model.
• To assess the model's calibration and discrimination in a primary care population.
• To evaluate the model's accuracy stratified by sex.

Main Methods:

• A cohort of 10,085 primary care patients without prior CVD was selected.
• Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the IberScore formula.
• Model calibration and discrimination (Area Under the ROC Curve) were assessed over a 10-year follow-up period.

Main Results:

• The IberScore model demonstrated good discrimination, with Area Under the ROC Curve values of 0.86 for men and 0.82 for women.
• Men exhibited a higher mean 10-year CVD risk (17.07%) and estimated vascular age 4+ years above biological age.
• Women showed a mean 10-year risk of 7.91% and estimated vascular age 2+ years above biological age.

Conclusions:

• The IberScore model shows strong discriminative capacity in primary care settings.
• The study indicates that the IberScore model generally overestimates cardiovascular risk.
• Calibration adjustments may be necessary for precise risk prediction in this population.