Continuous Medicaid coverage during the COVID-19 public health emergency reduced churning, but did not eliminate it

Preserving insurance coverage in the wake of pandemic-related job loss was a priority in early 2020. To this end, the Families First Coronavirus Response Act implemented a continuous coverage policy in Medicaid to shore up access to health insurance. Prior to the pandemic, Medicaid enrollees experienced frequent coverage disruptions, known as "churning." The effect of the continuous coverage policy on churning during the COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE) is unknown. We performed a difference-in-differences analysis of nonelderly Medicaid enrollees using longitudinal national survey data to compare a 2019-2020 cohort exposed to the policy with a control cohort in 2018-2019. We found that the policy led to reduced transitions to uninsurance among adults, although not among children. The policy prevented over 300 000 transitions to uninsurance each month. However, disenrollment from Medicaid persisted at a low rate, despite the continuous coverage policy. As the PHE unwinds, policymakers should consider long-term continuous coverage policies to minimize churning in Medicaid.