Study of liver cirrhosis over twenty consecutive years in adults in Southern China

Liver cirrhosis (LC) is a prevalent and severe disease in China. The burden of LC is changing with widespread vaccination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and antiviral therapy. However, the recent transition in etiologies and clinical features of LC cases requiring hospitalization is unclear.

To identify the transition in etiologies and clinical characteristics of hospitalized LC patients in Southern China.

In this retrospective, cross-sectional study we included LC inpatients admitted between January 2001 and December 2020. Medical data indicating etiological diagnosis and LC complications, and demographic, laboratory, and imaging data were collected from our hospital-based dataset. The etiologies of LC were mainly determined according to the discharge diagnosis, and upper gastrointestinal bleeding, ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), portal vein thrombosis, hepatorenal syndrome, and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) were considered LC-related complications in our study. Changing trends in the etiologies and clinical characteristics were investigated using logistic regression, and temporal trends in proportions of separated years were investigated using the Cochran-Armitage test. In-hospital prognosis and risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality were also investigated.

A total of 33143 patients were included in the study [mean (SD) age, 51.7 (11.9) years], and 82.2% were males. The mean age of the study population increased from 51.0 years in 2001-2010 to 52.0 years in 2011-2020 (P < 0.001), and the proportion of female patients increased from 16.7% in 2001-2010 to 18.2% in 2011-2020 (P = 0.003). LC patients in the decompensated stage at diagnosis decreased from 68.1% in 2001-2010 to 64.6% in 2011-2020 (P < 0.001), and the median score of model for end-stage liver disease also decreased from 14.0 to 11.0 (P < 0.001). HBV remained the major etiology of LC (75.0%) and the dominant cause of viral hepatitis-LC (94.5%) during the study period. However, the proportion of HBV-LC decreased from 82.4% in 2001-2005 to 74.2% in 2016-2020, and the proportion of viral hepatitis-LC decreased from 85.2% in 2001-2005 to 78.1% in 2016-2020 (both P for trend < 0.001). Meanwhile, the proportions of LC caused by alcoholic liver disease, autoimmune hepatitis and mixed etiology increased by 2.5%, 0.8% and 4.5%, respectively (all P for trend < 0.001). In-hospital mortality was stable at 1.0% in 2011-2020, whereas HCC and ACLF manifested the highest increases in prevalence among all LC complications (35.8% to 41.0% and 5.7% to 12.4%, respectively) and were associated with 6-fold and 4-fold increased risks of mortality (odds ratios: 6.03 and 4.22, respectively).

LC inpatients have experienced changes in age distribution and etiologies of cirrhosis over the last 20 years in Southern China. HCC and ACLF are associated with the highest risk of in-hospital mortality among LC complications.