Predicting low carbon pathways on the township level in China: a case study of an island

Carbon prediction on the township level is usually difficult due to a lack of necessary information. To fulfil the research gap, the study focused on a town located in a nearshore island (Lingshan) in China. A questionnaire survey was performed to collect essential information about the future development of the town, followed by validating interviews with the island management committee. The carbon prediction of the town was established by the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model. The baseline scenario reflecting the existing method of carbon management was compared with an alternative low-carbon scenario. The prediction from 2020 to 2060 covers the periods of the planned carbon emissions peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060. It is found that energy-related activities and electricity consumption are the primary contributors to carbon emissions on the island. The carbon emission of Lingshan Island increases from -1333 tCO₂e in 2020 to 2744 tCO₂e in 2060, and the carbon peak target cannot be achieved in the baseline scenario. However, the carbon emission of the low-carbon scenario is predicted to have a peak of -850 tCO₂e in 2029. The prediction model developed in this study, along with the proposed policy recommendations, can be applied to other towns or regions where data availability is limited to promote carbon reduction.