Quantitative Model-Based Assessment of Multiple Sickle Cell Disease Therapeutic Approaches Alone and in Combination

Three sickle cell disease (SCD) treatment strategies, stabilizing oxygenated hemoglobin (oxyHb), lowering 2,3-BPG, and inducing fetal hemoglobin (HbF) expression aim to prevent red blood cell (RBC) sickling by reducing tense-state sickle hemoglobin that contributes to polymer formation. Induction of 30% HbF is seen as the gold standard because 30% endogenous expression is associated with a lack of symptoms. However, the level of intervention required to achieve equivalent polymerization protection by the other strategies is uncertain, and there is little understanding of how these approaches could work in combination. We sought to develop an oxygen saturation model that could assess polymerization protection of all three approaches alone or in combination by extending the Monod-Wymann-Changeux model to include additional mechanisms. Applying the model to monotherapies suggests 51% sickle hemoglobin (HbS) occupancy with an oxyHb stabilizer or lowering RBC 2,3 BPG concentrations to 1.8 mM would produce comparable polymerization protection as 30% HbF. The model predictions are consistent with observed clinical response to the oxyHb stabilizer voxelotor and the 2,3-BPG reducer etavopivat. The model also suggests combination therapy will have added benefit in the case of dose limitations, as is the case for voxelotor, which the model predicts could be combined with 20% HbF or 2,3-BPG reduction to 3.75 mM to reach equivalent protection as 30% HbF. The proposed model represents a unified framework that is useful in supporting decisions in preclinical and early clinical development and capable of evolving with clinical experience to gain new and increasingly confident insights into treatment strategies for SCD.