Machine learning-based techniques for land subsidence simulation in an urban area

Understanding and mitigating land subsidence (LS) is critical for sustainable urban planning and infrastructure management. We introduce a comprehensive analysis of LS forecasting utilizing two advanced machine learning models: the eXtreme Gradient Boosting Regressor (XGBR) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Our findings highlight groundwater level (GWL) and building concentration (BC) as pivotal factors influencing LS. Through the use of Taylor diagram, we demonstrate a strong correlation between both XGBR and LSTM models and the subsidence data, affirming their predictive accuracy. Notably, we applied delta-rate (Δr) calculus to simulate a scenario with an 80% reduction in GWL and BC impact, revealing a potential substantial decrease in LS by 2040. This projection emphasizes the effectiveness of strategic urban and environmental policy interventions. The model performances, indicated by coefficients of determination R² (0.90 for XGBR, 0.84 for LSTM), root-mean-squared error RMSE (0.37 for XGBR, 0.50 for LSTM), and mean-absolute-error MAE (0.34 for XGBR, 0.67 for LSTM), confirm their reliability. This research sets a precedent for incorporating dynamic environmental factors and adapting to real-time data in future studies. Our approach facilitates proactive LS management through data-driven strategies, offering valuable insights for policymakers and laying the foundation for sustainable urban development and resource management practices.