Global economic structure transition boosts PM_2.5-related human health impact in Belt and Road Initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an open platform for international cooperation proposed by China to promote common global development and prosperity. The BRI can promote the optimal allocation of resources and promote in-depth cooperation in international trade. Meanwhile, it can establish a green supply chain cooperation network to help BRI countries achieve green transformation. BRI has made a notable contribution to the rapid growth of cross-border trade. However, it has also brought environmental impacts. Given that little attention has been paid to the trade-embodied particulate matter 2.5 related human health impacts (PM_2.5-HHI) throughout the BRI, this study accounts for and traces the embodied PM_2.5-HHI flows between the BRI countries and non-Belt and Road Initiative (non-BRI) countries. Moreover, this study also uncovers the critical socioeconomic drivers of PM_2.5-HHI changes in BRI countries during 1990-2015, based on the multi-regional input-output based structural decomposition analysis (MRIO-SDA). Results show that, firstly, BRI countries had significantly increased their economic added value by exporting products to the non-BRI countries. They also have brought PM_2.5-HHI to themselves. Secondly, the final demand of BRI countries was the largest potential driving force of PM_2.5-HHI of BRI countries. Thirdly, the emission intensity change of BRI is the key socioeconomic factor for reducing PM_2.5-HHI. While per capita final demand level change of BRI and production structure change of non-BRI are the key socioeconomic factors for increasing PM_2.5-HHI. The study's findings on the one hand can help reduce the PM_2.5-HHI and impacts of environmental pollution of BRI countries from a global perspective by providing scientific support. On the other hand, they can help provide relevant policy recommendations for the green transformation of BRI and the construction of green BRI.