Estimating the Incidence and Prevalence of Dysphagia in New Zealand

Dysphagia imposes a substantial economic burden on global healthcare systems due to its pervasive, high-cost nature. To comprehend this burden, we must first assess dysphagia's prevalence and incidence in the general population. Existing studies on dysphagia prevalence encompass minor symptoms, while it is the severe cases that drive significant healthcare costs. We address this knowledge gap by estimating dysphagia incidence and prevalence in the New Zealand population, projecting future demographics of affected individuals. Incidence and prevalence rates of dysphagia within specific underlying medical conditions are sourced from existing literature. Median projected population estimates from Statistics New Zealand, by age, sex, and ethnicity are used to calculate dysphagia projections. Where possible, projections by age and ethnicity are provided until 2038 and projections by age and sex until 2073. In 2020, 9300 New Zealanders are estimated to have newly developed dysphagia while 1.5% of the general New Zealand population are estimated to have been living with the effects of the condition. By 2073, the number of individuals newly diagnosed annually is projected to increase to 24,500 and the prevalence of dysphagia is projected to increase to 2.6%. These results indicate that a significant number of New Zealanders are impacted by dysphagia. This number is predicted to dramatically increase in the future, mostly due to population ageing, indicating an increased burden on society and healthcare systems. Our work provides a useful starting point for countries worldwide to assess future healthcare resource demands associated with dysphagia, assisting with healthcare provision planning.