Infant mortality trends and differentials in Nepal.

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Public Health
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Accurate estimation of infant mortality is crucial for public health policy.
• Previous studies have used various data sources in Nepal, with varying reliability.
• Understanding trends and differentials in infant mortality informs targeted interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate infant mortality trends and differentials in Nepal using 1981 data.
• To compare estimates from the Nepal Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (NCPS) with the Nepal Fertility Survey (NFS) and the 1981 Census.
• To assess the data quality and reliability of different sources for infant mortality estimation.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of infant mortality rates directly from maternity histories of the 1981 NCPS and 1976 NFS.
• Comparison with indirect estimates derived from child survivorship data.
• Utilized data from the 1981 Nepal Census for comparative analysis.

Main Results:

• Infant mortality rates from NFS maternity histories were the most accurate.
• NCPS maternity histories severely underestimated infant mortality, showing a biased reverse trend.
• Indirect estimates from child survivorship data lacked consistency.
• Infant mortality differentials were generally consistent with prior studies when expressed relatively.

Conclusions:

• The Nepal Fertility Survey (NFS) provides more accurate infant mortality data than the Nepal Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (NCPS).
• Data quality significantly impacts the accuracy of infant mortality trend estimation.
• Further investigation into data collection methodologies is needed to improve reliability.