Will trees or grasses profit from changing rainfall regimes in savannas?

Increasing rainfall variability is widely expected under future climate change scenarios. How will savanna trees and grasses be affected by growing season dry spells and altered seasonality and how tightly coupled are tree-grass phenologies with rainfall? We measured tree and grass responses to growing season dry spells and dry season rainfall. We also tested whether the phenologies of 17 deciduous woody species and the Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index of grasses were related to rainfall between 2019 and 2023. Tree and grass growth was significantly reduced during growing season dry spells. Tree growth was strongly related to growing season soil water potentials and limited to the wet season. Grasses can rapidly recover after growing season dry spells and grass evapotranspiration was significantly related to soil water potentials in both the wet and dry seasons. Tree leaf flushing commenced before the rainfall onset date with little subsequent leaf flushing. Grasses grew when moisture became available regardless of season. Our findings suggest that increased dry spell length and frequency in the growing season may slow down tree growth in some savannas, which together with longer growing seasons may allow grasses an advantage over C₃ plants that are advantaged by rising CO₂ levels.