Updating estimates of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria risk in response to changing land use patterns across Southeast

Ruarai J Tobin1, Lucinda E Harrison2, Meg K Tully1

  • 1Infectious Disease Dynamics Unit, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.

PubMed
Abstract

Insights

Plasmodium knowlesi malaria risk is highest in Malaysia and Indonesia, with localized high-risk areas in Southeast Asia. This study maps transmission suitability to guide malaria elimination efforts.

Area of Science:

  • Zoonotic disease epidemiology
  • Spatial ecology of infectious diseases
  • Malaria elimination strategies

Background:

  • Plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic parasite causing human malaria, transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes from macaque reservoirs.
  • Geographic risk of P. knowlesi infection varies due to environmental factors, complicating diagnosis, treatment, and elimination planning.
  • Existing P. knowlesi occurrence data are biased by surveillance efforts, necessitating methods that account for environmental factors and detection biases.

Approach:

  • An environmental niche modeling framework was extended and applied, incorporating data up to March 2020.
  • 264 new P. knowlesi records were identified, consolidating with previous data for a total of 524 occurrences.
  • New covariates, including deforestation and urbanization, were added to model P. knowlesi transmission dynamics.

Key Points:

  • The updated model predicts the highest P. knowlesi transmission suitability in Malaysia and Indonesia.
  • Localized areas of high risk were also identified in the Greater Mekong Subregion, The Philippines, and Northeast India.
  • These predictions are crucial for prioritizing P. knowlesi surveillance and sampling.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides a refined map of P. knowlesi relative transmission suitability.
  • Identified high-risk areas are critical for targeted interventions in malaria elimination programs.
  • Addressing P. knowlesi transmission is essential for achieving malaria-free goals in endemic regions.

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