Crowding-out effect of tobacco consumption in Indonesia

Tobacco consumption is pervasive in Indonesia, with 6 out of 10 households in the country consuming tobacco. Smoking households, on average, divert a significant share (10.7%) of their monthly budget on tobacco products, which is higher than spending on staples, meat or vegetables. Nevertheless, evidence of the causal link between tobacco expenditure and spending on other commodities in Indonesia is limited.

This study aims to estimate the crowding-out effects of tobacco spending on the expenditure of other goods and services in Indonesia.

This research estimates the conditional Engel curve with three-stage least square regression, where the instrumental variable technique is applied to address the simultaneity of tobacco and total non-tobacco spending. The study employs a large-scale household budget survey from the Indonesian socioeconomic survey (Susenas) from 2017 to 2019, comprising over 900 000 households.

Tobacco spending crowds out the share of a household's budget allocated for food, such as spending on staples, meat, dairy, vegetables and fruits. Moreover, tobacco spending also reduces the share of expenditure spent on non-food commodities, such as clothing, housing, utilities, durable and non-durable goods, education, healthcare and entertainment, although its effect is not as large as the crowding out on food. The analysis shows that the crowding-out effects of tobacco are observed across low-income, middle-income and high-income households. In addition, the simulation suggests that reducing tobacco expenditure will increase household spending on essential needs.