Development and validation of survival prognostic models for head and neck cancer patients using machine learning and...

This study aimed to investigate the value of clinical, radiomic features extracted from gross tumor volumes (GTVs) delineated on CT images, dose distributions (Dosiomics), and fusion of CT and dose distributions to predict outcomes in head and neck cancer (HNC) patients.

A cohort of 240 HNC patients from five different centers was obtained from The Cancer Imaging Archive. Seven strategies, including four non-fusion (Clinical, CT, Dose, DualCT-Dose), and three fusion algorithms (latent low-rank representation referred (LLRR),Wavelet, weighted least square (WLS)) were applied. The fusion algorithms were used to fuse the pre-treatment CT images and 3-dimensional dose maps. Overall, 215 radiomics and Dosiomics features were extracted from the GTVs, alongside with seven clinical features incorporated. Five feature selection (FS) methods in combination with six machine learning (ML) models were implemented. The performance of the models was quantified using the concordance index (CI) in one-center-leave-out 5-fold cross-validation for overall survival (OS) prediction considering the time-to-event.

The mean CI and Kaplan-Meier curves were used for further comparisons. The CoxBoost ML model using the Minimal Depth (MD) FS method and the glmnet model using the Variable hunting (VH) FS method showed the best performance with CI = 0.73 ± 0.15 for features extracted from LLRR fused images. In addition, both glmnet-Cindex and Coxph-Cindex classifiers achieved a CI of 0.72 ± 0.14 by employing the dose images (+ incorporated clinical features) only.

Our results demonstrated that clinical features, Dosiomics and fusion of dose and CT images by specific ML-FS models could predict the overall survival of HNC patients with acceptable accuracy. Besides, the performance of ML methods among the three different strategies was almost comparable.