Smoking-associated Electrocardiographic Abnormalities Predict Cardiovascular Mortality: Insights from NHANES

Smoking is associated with arrhythmia and sudden cardiac death, but the biological mechanisms remain unclear. Abnormal electrocardiogram (ECG) durations of ventricular repolarization (QT interval), atrial depolarization (P wave), and atrioventricular depolarization (PR interval and segment), predict cardiac arrhythmia and mortality.

To elucidate how smoking affects cardiac excitation, we assessed in a nationally representative sample (NHANES III) associations between cotinine, abnormalities in P duration, PR interval, PR segment, rate-corrected QT (QTc), QRS duration, and JT interval, and long-term mortality.

We analyzed data from 5,633 adults using survey-weighted multinomial logistic regression to estimate associations between tobacco use (>15 ng/ml serum cotinine) and short (<5th percentile) or long (>95th percentile) ECG intervals, relative to reference (5 - 95th percentile).

After adjustment for demographics, risk factors, and conduction-altering medications, smoking was associated with a higher odds of short PR interval, PR segment, and QRS, and long JT. Broader ECG effects of smoking were also assessed by survey-weighted linear regression of continuous cotinine and ECG intervals, which revealed cotinine inversely associated with PR segment and QTc. Over a 22-year follow-up, many ECG abnormalities predicted cardiovascular mortality in smokers, including long JT, QRS, and QTc, and short QRS.

Smoking increases likelihood for rapid atrioventricular conduction, rapid ventricular depolarization, and slow ventricular repolarization. The ventricular electrophysiologic abnormalities associated with smoking also predict cardiovascular mortality in smokers; however, traditional ECG measures of cardiac risk like QTc can overlook these ventricular defects and their independent predictive value in smokers.