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Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems

Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems

Published on: June 30, 2020

Atmospheric rivers over eastern US affected by Pacific/North America pattern.

Wenhao Dong^1,2, Ming Zhao², Zhihong Tan³

¹Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.

Science Advances

|January 24, 2024

Summary

Winter atmospheric rivers (ARs) are increasing in the eastern US. This trend is linked to the Pacific/North America (PNA) pattern, aiding extreme weather prediction.

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Area of Science:

Atmospheric science
Climate dynamics
Extreme weather events

Background:

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) significantly impact US weather, yet their behavior in the eastern US (EUS) is understudied.
Previous research focused on ARs in the western US, leaving a knowledge gap for the EUS.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the trends and variability of ARs in the eastern US.
To understand the connection between ARs and climate patterns in the EUS.

Main Methods:

Analysis of observational data and climate model simulations.
Statistical modeling to assess the relationship between AR frequency and climate indices.

Main Results:

A significant increase in winter AR frequency in the EUS over the past four decades (~10% per decade).
A strong correlation between AR occurrence and the Pacific/North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern.
Demonstrated effectiveness of a statistical model in predicting AR frequency using the PNA index.

Conclusions:

The PNA pattern and a poleward shift in the jet stream are linked to increased ARs in the EUS.
Findings provide a basis for improved prediction of AR-associated extreme precipitation and flooding in the EUS.