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Exploring the interplay between climate change and schistosomiasis transmission dynamics
Zadoki Tabo1,2, Chester Kalinda1,3, Lutz Breuer2,4
1Department of Animal Ecology and Systematics, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26 (iFZ), 35392 Giessen, Germany.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|January 25, 2024
Summary
Climate significantly impacts schistosomiasis transmission in East Africa. Temperature and rainfall patterns influence disease dynamics, with specific temperature ranges favoring or hindering parasite development and spread. Proactive measures are crucial for future control.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Tropical Medicine
Background:
- Schistosomiasis is a major public health issue in tropical regions, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa.
- Climate factors like temperature and rainfall are known to influence the transmission dynamics of schistosomiasis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and evaluate a deterministic model for assessing temporal and seasonal schistosomiasis transmission dynamics.
- To analyze the influence of temperature and rainfall variations on disease transmission over time.
- To examine the stability of equilibrium states and calculate the basic reproduction number.
Main Methods:
- A deterministic mathematical model was employed to simulate schistosomiasis transmission.
- Center manifold theory was used to analyze the existence and stability of equilibrium states.
- The next-generation technique was utilized to compute the basic reproduction number.
- Demographic and climatological data from Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania served as a case study.
Main Results:
- Schistosomiasis transmission is significantly affected by seasonal and monthly climate variations.
- Mean temperatures between 22-27°C promote schistosomiasis development and increase reproduction numbers.
- Maximum temperatures from 27-33°C adversely affect transmission.
- Sensitivity analysis projects snail recruitment, parasite eggs in stools, and miracidia shedding as key factors by 2050.
Conclusions:
- Seasonal and monthly climate variations, driven by temperature and rainfall, are critical determinants of schistosomiasis transmission.
- Climate-informed strategies are essential for effective schistosomiasis control and prevention.
- Anticipating future disease patterns requires understanding the projected impact of key factors on schistosomiasis infections.
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