Participatory modelling of scenarios to restore nitrogen cycles in a nutrient-saturated area

This paper aims to find socially acceptable solutions of circularity as measure to reduce nitrogen (N) losses and prevent environmental damage by combining participatory modelling and scenario Substance Flow Analyses (SFA). A local perspective was taken on the agro-food-waste system in the animal production-dominated German district Cleves. Three scenarios were programmed as Monte Carlo simulation of SFA with stakeholder input regarding crop allocation, livestock composition, livestock reduction, and manure allocation following the elimination of feed imports. The three scenarios either utilized the unaltered stakeholder input (PS), altered crop allocation to satisfy the demand for feed (CBS), or adjusted the livestock numbers to match the locally available feed (LBS). In the reference year (2020) agricultural losses amounted to 68 kg N year^-1 ha^-1 agricultural land and 116 kg N in feed was imported year^-1 ha^-1 agricultural land. In the PS feed import elimination led to deficits in feed availability. The LBS showed the biggest reduction of agricultural N losses and improved N use efficiency (+6 %), however agricultural losses were still high (50 kg N year^-1 ha^-1 agricultural land). The results show a limited effect of feed import elimination on N losses if no further measures are taken, such as reduced consumption of animal-based products. Further, the study shows that it is important to improve stakeholders' knowledge about approaches to circular agro-food-waste systems. The discrepancy between stakeholder visions and N circularity provide policy makers with the recommendation to improve stakeholders' visions of a circular agro-food-waste system.