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Declining coupling between vegetation and drought over the past three decades.

Delong Li1, Li An1,2, Shuai Zhong1

  • 1Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.

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|January 26, 2024
PubMed
Summary

Vegetation is increasingly sensitive to drought over time. While coupling decreased globally, water-surplus regions now face higher drought risks, impacting future vegetation survival.

Keywords:
drought timescaleslong-term trendtrend attributionsvegetation-drought couplingwater-deficit zoneswater-surplus zones

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Change Research
  • Ecology

Background:

  • Droughts are a primary cause of vegetation die-off, with future climate change expected to worsen this impact.
  • Current methods for assessing vegetation-drought relationships, like correlation coefficients, overlook the crucial factor of optimal drought timescale.
  • Understanding vegetation's sensitivity to drought at different timescales is vital for predicting ecosystem responses.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the changing coupling between vegetation and drought over three decades (1982-2015).
  • To identify the optimal drought timescale for vegetation response and analyze its global trends.
  • To assess how vegetation-drought coupling shifts in water-deficit versus water-surplus regions.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data.
  • Employed the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to represent drought conditions.
  • Applied an optimal drought timescale identification method to analyze vegetation-drought coupling changes.

Main Results:

  • A global increase in vegetation's response to varying drought timescales was observed.
  • The overall correlation between vegetation and drought, at the optimal timescale, declined from 1982 to 2015.
  • Decreased coupling was prominent in water-deficit regions, while water-surplus regions showed increasing trends despite initial low coupling.

Conclusions:

  • Vegetation-drought coupling dynamics have shifted globally, with water-surplus regions exhibiting heightened vulnerability.
  • Increasing atmospheric CO2 may be a driving factor behind these observed changes.
  • Findings provide critical insights into future vegetation drought risk and sensitivity under climate change, emphasizing the need to consider optimal drought timescales.