Flood Risk and Preventive Choices: A Framework for Studying Human Behaviors

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Social Science
• Computer Science

Background:

• Flood phenomena pose significant economic, social, and life-threatening risks, exacerbated by climate change.
• Understanding human factors is crucial for effective response to hydrogeological hazards.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the role of human factors in responding to critical hydrogeological phenomena.
• To introduce an agent-based platform for analyzing social behaviors during critical events.

Main Methods:

• Development of an agent-based platform simulating a population facing catastrophic flood risk.
• Modeling citizens as cognitive agents assessing risk based on information sources and mutual trust.
• Analysis of behavioral profiles of citizens and authorities.

Main Results:

• Identification of the "dissonance between evaluation and action" effect, where individuals may act contrary to trusted information during high-risk events.
• Demonstration of the social structure's capacity to act as a "social risk absorber," potentially increasing risk tolerance.
• Simulation of citizen and authority behavioral profiles in critical hydrogeological scenarios.

Conclusions:

• Agent-based modeling provides insights into complex social dynamics during flood events.
• Findings can inform the development of general guidelines for disaster response and risk management.
• Social structures can play a vital role in mitigating the impact of hydrogeological risks.