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Field Collection and Laboratory Maintenance of Canopy-Forming Giant Kelp to Facilitate Restoration

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Coastal adaptation and migration dynamics under future shoreline changes.

Lars Tierolf¹, Toon Haer¹, Panagiotis Athanasiou²

¹Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

The Science of the Total Environment

|January 26, 2024

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Sea level rise (SLR) may force significant coastal migration. Implementing adaptation strategies like floodproofing and beach nourishment can reduce this SLR-induced migration by over 30%.

Keywords:

Agent-based modeling Climate migration Coastal adaptation Coastal erosion Flood risk Sea level rise

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Area of Science:

Environmental Science
Climate Change Adaptation
Coastal Dynamics

Background:

Sea level rise (SLR) poses increasing risks to coastal communities globally.
Understanding and quantifying climate change impacts on coastal populations is crucial for effective adaptation planning.
Existing models often lack detailed representation of household and governmental adaptation behaviors.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and present a novel modeling framework for stylized coastal adaptation and migration dynamics under SLR.
To simulate household and government agent adaptation to shoreline change and flood risk.
To quantify the impact of different adaptation strategies on SLR-induced migration.

Main Methods:

Development of an agent-based model coupled with a gravity-based migration model.
Integration of household characteristics from census data and adaptation decisions from survey data.
Incorporation of SLR projections (RCPs) and socioeconomic development scenarios (SSPs) for simulations between 2015 and 2080.

Main Results:

Without adaptation, SLR could cause 13,100 to 21,700 coastal inhabitants to migrate cumulatively by 2080.
SLR-induced migration is highly sensitive to adaptation strategies employed by households and governments.
Combined household floodproofing and government beach nourishment reduced projected SLR-induced migration by 31%-36%.

Conclusions:

Adaptation strategies significantly influence the scale of SLR-induced coastal migration.
The developed modeling framework allows for comparative analysis of climate change impacts under various adaptation scenarios.
Effective coastal adaptation planning requires integrating household behavior with governmental protection measures.