Lineage and ecology define liver tumor evolution in response to treatment

A tumor ecosystem constantly evolves over time in the face of immune predation or therapeutic intervention, resulting in treatment failure and tumor progression. Here, we present a single-cell transcriptome-based strategy to determine the evolution of longitudinal tumor biopsies from liver cancer patients by measuring cellular lineage and ecology. We construct a lineage and ecological score as joint dynamics of tumor cells and their microenvironments. Tumors may be classified into four main states in the lineage-ecological space, which are associated with clinical outcomes. Analysis of longitudinal samples reveals the evolutionary trajectory of tumors in response to treatment. We validate the lineage-ecology-based scoring system in predicting clinical outcomes using bulk transcriptomic data of additional cohorts of 716 liver cancer patients. Our study provides a framework for monitoring tumor evolution in response to therapeutic intervention.