Computed tomography-based radiomics model to predict adverse clinical outcomes in acute pulmonary embolism

This preliminary study investigated the feasibility of a combined model constructed using radiomic features based on computed tomography (CT) and clinical features to predict adverse clinical outcomes in acute pulmonary embolism (APE). Currently, there is no widely recognized predictive model. Patients with confirmed APE who underwent CT pulmonary angiography were retrospectively categorized into good and poor prognosis groups. Seventy-four patients were randomized into a training (n = 51) or validation (n = 23) cohort. Feature extraction was performed using 3D-Slicer software. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to identify the optimal radiomics features and calculate the radiomics scores; subsequently, the radiomics model was developed. A combined predictive model was constructed based on radiomics scores and selected clinical features. The predictive efficacy of the three models (radiomics, clinical and combined) was assessed by plotting receiver operating characteristic curves. Furthermore, the calibration curves were graphed and the decision curve analysis was performed. Four radiomic features were screened to calculate the radiomic score. Right ventricular to left ventricular ratio (RV/LV) ≥ 1.0 and radiomics score were independent risk factors for adverse clinical outcomes. In the training and validation cohorts, the areas under the curve (AUCs) for the RV/LV ≥ 1.0 (clinical) and radiomics score prediction models were 0.778 and 0.833 and 0.907 and 0.817, respectively. The AUCs for the combined model of RV/LV ≥ 1.0 and radiomics score were 0.925 and 0.917, respectively. The combined and radiomics models had high clinical assessment efficacy for predicting adverse clinical outcomes in APE, demonstrating the clinical utility of both models. Calibration curves exhibited a strong level of consistency between the predictive and observed probabilities of poor and good prognoses in the combined model. The combined model of RV/LV ≥ 1.0 and radiomics score based on CT could accurately and non-invasively predict adverse clinical outcomes in patients with APE.