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Who shows the Unlikelihood Effect - and why?

Moritz Ingendahl1, Johanna Woitzel2, Hans Alves2

  • 1Department of Psychology, Ruhr University Bochum, Germany, Universitätsstraße 150, D-44801, Bochum, Germany. moritz.ingendahl@ruhr-uni-bochum.de.

Psychonomic Bulletin & Review
|January 29, 2024
PubMed
Summary

The Unlikelihood Effect, where people judge outcomes as less likely when shown pathway probabilities, is partly due to some individuals misinterpreting probability information. Addressing these calculation errors reduces the effect.

Keywords:
Cognitive biasProbability judgmentsRiskUncertaintyUnlikelihood effect

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Making
  • Probability Judgement

Background:

  • The Unlikelihood Effect describes how learning pathway probabilities lowers perceived outcome likelihood.
  • Previous explanations focused on low pathway probabilities triggering thoughts of unlikelihood.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate an alternative explanation for the Unlikelihood Effect: erroneous probability information processing.
  • To identify and address individual differences in probability comprehension.

Main Methods:

  • Reanalysis of existing experimental data to identify outlier judgments.
  • Six preregistered experiments testing probability understanding and calculation abilities.
  • Statistical and experimental controls for participants with low likelihood judgments.

Main Results:

  • A subset of participants exhibited extremely low likelihood judgments due to misunderstanding total outcome probability and performing incorrect calculations.
  • Controlling for these factors significantly reduced the Unlikelihood Effect, sometimes eliminating it.
  • The Unlikelihood Effect is confirmed as robust, but influenced by individual probability processing difficulties.

Conclusions:

  • The Unlikelihood Effect is partly driven by a minority of individuals struggling with probability encoding, understanding, and integration.
  • Participant heterogeneity in cognitive processing can significantly influence observed psychological effects.
  • Findings highlight the importance of considering individual differences in cognitive research on judgment and decision-making.