Risk of Pancreatic Cancer After Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Analysis of the Korean National Sample Cohort

Acute pancreatitis may increase the risk of pancreatic cancer, although this association remains unclear. Therefore, we aimed to investigate this association.

We retrospectively analyzed the 2002-2019 Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort using 1:3 propensity score matching for sex and age (acute pancreatitis, n = 4,494; matched controls, n = 13,482). We calculated the hazard ratio (HR) for pancreatic cancer risk in patients with acute pancreatitis using Cox proportional hazards regression.

Acute pancreatitis was significantly associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer throughout the study period (adjusted HR, 7.56 [95% confidence interval, 5.00-11.41]), which persisted for 2, 2-5, and > 5 years post-diagnosis (19.11 [9.60-38.05], 3.46 [1.35-8.33], and 2.73 [1.21-6.15], respectively). This pancreatitis-related pancreatic cancer risk became insignificant beyond 10 years of follow-up (1.24 [0.24-6.49]). Furthermore, this risk notably increased as the number of recurrent acute pancreatitis episodes increased (1 episode: 5.25 [3.31-8.33], 2 episodes: 11.35 [6.38-20.19], ≥ 3 episodes: 24.58 [13.66-44.26]).

Following an acute pancreatitis diagnosis, the risk of pancreatic cancer increases significantly in the initial years, with a rapid increase further accentuated with recurrent acute pancreatitis episodes. Additional study is needed to evaluate whether this increased risk of carcinogenesis is attributed to accumulated inflammation.